NEWSMAKERS
- “We are not panicking, are we?” ask the central bankers
- Bernanke under fire
- What price central bank cooperation?
- Noyer’s late call to the Fed – and to how own government
- Sarkozy/Lagrande to lead calls for tighter regulation
- Sovereign wealth funds hit back
- SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND ANNUAL CONFERENCE
- Turkish central bank packs its bags
- Polish central bank in turmoil
- Weigl candidate for CNB board
- Promotions at PBoC
- Farewell to Tony Solomon
- Tanzania governor dismissed
- How Irwin Stelzer irritated the Bank
- Parliamentary committee lets Bank down lightly ….
- ….but does savage the Tripartite Authorities
- Why was the guarantee of deposits delayed?
- The Mervyn reappointment stakes
- FSA’s Huertas dodges the issue
- Jose de Gregorio takes over in Chile
- Murray promoted
- Chinese becomes chief World Bank economist
- Slyngstad heads Norway’s SWF
- Jihad Al-Wazir starts at the PMA
- Professor Honkapohja for the Bank of Finland
- Drive on the left, says governor
“We are not panicking, are we?” ask the central bankers
Ben Bernanke has come in for a lot of stick for allegedly panicking in the face of stock market collapses but other central bankers are not acquitting themselves very well either.
Many of them were on duty – but off the record – at Davos last week. Messrs Trichet of the ECB, Geithner of the New York Fed, Carney of the Bank of Canada, Knight of the BIS and a gaggle of others. All stressed the extreme gravity of the situation. But they seemed completely at a loss when it came to policy responses.
It must be better to cut rates decisively now, said one, even if we have to raise them again later. The costs of precipitating a banking collapse are so horrendous they far outweigh the risks of a little increase in moral hazard and the risk of stimulating inflation. Others nodded sagely.
The old system that they thought they understood and to a degree managed has gone, said another. “Everything is on the table”; “the extent of this crisis is very far-reaching”. They welcomed initially the repricing of risk but this has gone far beyond that with the losses of the monoline insurers put at up to $150bn.
Faced with what threatens to become not just a credit crunch but the biggest banking crisis in a generation, all they have are their poor little interest rate tools. They are all one-club golfers, after all. No wonder there is a new mood of humility about.
When at its emergency video conference convened by Ben Bernanke at 6 pm on Monday 21 January, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower rates by 75 basis points to 3.5%, the biggest single cut since 1982, it took the decision “in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth.”
Ed Yardeni, a well-known Fed watcher, says the FOMC statement should have read:
“The Fed chairman panicked on Monday…He convinced all of us to vote for the rate cut except cranky old Bill Poole.”
Accusations of panic came from George Soros, the FT, The Economist and many other quarters.
And far from cheering markets, only a few days later the Fed came under pressure to cut again by at least another 50 basis points at its regular meeting. What is going on?
The first big cut came at the end of a day which saw shares in Asia and Europe plunge as investors dismissed President Bush’s plans for a fiscal boost, unveiled on Friday, 18 January, as largely irrelevant. After the overnight losses on Asian exchanges, European bourses followed suit. On January 21, The FTSE 100 lost 5.5% to 5,578, its biggest drop since the World Trade Centre attacks. the DAX was down 7.2% to 6,790 whilet the CAC 40 tumbled by 6.83% to 4,744.
The Fed top brass – people like Don Kohn and Tim Geithner – knew full well that they would be accused of a knee-jerk reaction to the markets, validating the growing view that Bernanke was following Greenspan in holding monetary policy in thrall to a “Wall Street standard”. But they were driven to act by fear of a cumulative and rapid collapse.
Yet it later transpired that the global stock market rout of 21 January may well have been triggered, not by fears of a US downturn as by the actions of one bank – Société Générale of France – as it frantically sold shares to unwind positions entered into by its rogue trader Jerome Kerviel in the course of accumulating losses initially put at €4.8bn ($7bn).
Informed of this belatedly by the Banque de France, the Fed somewhat lamely insisted that they would have done the same if they had known at the time.
What price central bank cooperation?
Central bankers were just breathing a collective sigh of relief that over Christmas and the New Year the collective action to relieve market tensions announced on 12 December had actually succeeded.
Then they were hit by a new phase of the crisis – the sudden deterioration in the economic outlook for the United States, the stock market collapse, the SocGen affair, the monoline insurance crisis and widening losses at leading banks.
Christian Noyer, the governor of the Banque de France, might say he is “not at all worried” about Société Générale, despite it falling victim to the biggest fraud in banking history.
But when the French central bank admitted that it had known about the fraud since the weekend (19-20 January), there were raised eyebrows in other central banks. Why weren’t we told?
Noyer’s late call to the Fed – and to how own government
On Monday 28 January Christian Noyer admitted that he was informed of the crisis on Sunday 20 January but delayed informing his government until the following Wednesday because he wanted to avoid the danger of leaks as the bank sold the position on the market.
Moreover, he insisted that SocGen’s actions in selling its positions had no influence on the Federal Reserve’s decision:
“I consider that this affair has nothing to do with the monetary policy of the Fed,” he said. “It was a striking action but one that they took based on their judgment of the economic situation in the United States and so has nothing to do with European markets.”
“The Fed does not decide its monetary policy actions, particularly not its exceptional ones, because of the situation on European markets in one day. That’s nonsense.” Thus central banks have started the year on the back foot, increasing moral hazard and giving a public demonstration of how not to cooperate.
Sarkozy/Lagrande to lead calls for tighter regulation
When in doubt, call for more regulation. Inevitably, continental central bankers and politicians have seized on the banking crisis to call for more regulation. Noyer has already highlighted three areas in which the regulation of rating agencies needs to improve in the wake of the credit crunch: the degree of transparency in rating methods and the overall role of rating agencies in the securitisation process; whether to change the metric used for rating bonds and structured products and introducing a specific rating for liquidity risk.
But regulation of ratings agencies and hedge funds are seen as yesterday’s agenda. Newsmakers expects France to use its presidency of the EU in the second half of this year to press hard for much greater harmonisation of financial regulation in the EU, including London. This could take two forms; on the one hand is the proposal of Tomasso Padoa-Schiopa, Italy’s finance minister, for a common regulatory rule-book; on the other the currently dormant idea of a super regulator – a European SEC or FSA.
The British as usual are said to be totally unprepared for this diplomatic demarche. London’s light-touch approach to regulation has suffered what could be a mortal blow from Northern Rock, and all concerned – especially Alastair Darling, UK chancellor of the exchequer – are too preoccupied with covering their backsides over Northern Rock to bother with seemingly arcane EU issues.
Slovenia, which now has the presidency, has come under the wing of France, which is coaching it and supporting it. Already financial regulation is on its agenda. One of its official aims is “to address issues of financial stability, particularly with regard to crisis management. It will also strive for further regulatory convergence of financial market supervision….”
Sovereign wealth funds hit back
Heads of the top sovereign wealth funds from the Gulf states, Russia and other emerging markets were in fighting mood in Davos.
Leading the calls for tighter regulation and codes of conduct was Larry Summers, the former US treasury secretary. What would happen in a 1992-type situation, he asked, if SWFs were involved in speculating against a currency as George Soros speculated successfully against the pound? It would create intolerable diplomatic tensions. We need ex ante assurance that this type of situation will not happen. That is why we need a code of conduct.
Not so, retorted the funds. We have always been and remain responsible investors. We do not need any of your codes of conduct imposed on us.
On the contrary, it is up to you in the heartland of your famous capitalist system to get your act together. You have lectured us for decades on the need for tighter bank regulation, anti-money-laundering rules and so on and now you are in a bigger mess than we ever got ourselves into. It is your banks who are coming cap in hand to us because they made such a mess of their business under your much-touted regulatory regimes. Get your own houses in order….
It is the revenge of the emerging markets.
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The event will take place at the Waldorf Hilton in London on 13 and 14 March.
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Turkish central bank packs its bags
Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s announcement on 10 January that the central bank (along with the Capital Markets Board, the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund and three state-owned banks) are to move from Ankara to Istanbul does not seem to be going down well with employees at these institutions.
On paper at least, Erdogan’s logic is impeccable: the plan fitting well with his larger long-term strategy of making Turkey a modern, dynamic and competitive economy. Whilst Ankara is Turkey’s political capital, Istanbul is its commercial heart and home to the booming Istanbul Stock Exchange, which along with major banks and insurance companies is located in the modern Levent district. Istanbul also has Turkey’s main airport, with direct daily links to most important world capitals and to provincial Turkish cities; by contrast Ankara’s airport handles few international flights and is a good one hour’s drive from the city.
Relocating the central bank and Turkey’s regulatory agencies to Istanbul would also bring closer the dream of many in Turkey’s elite to see the city – or rather Levent – become a major financial hub.
Such arguments do not appear to cut much ice with employees of the central bank whose opposition to the move has been echoed by none other than Governor Durmus Yilmaz. Noting that Istanbul is more crowded and polluted than Ankara, they argue their living costs will rise dramatically as a result of Istanbul’s higher housing prices.
Other concerns have been voiced – moving the Central Bank will mean moving huge stocks of money and the national mint, a process expected to rack up a small fortune in removal and insurance costs. It will also require a legislative change – as things stand Ankara is legally defined as the home of Turkey’s central bank.
Supporters of the move should point out that locating the central bank and key regulatory bodies in a city other than the capital hasn’t exactly hurt Germany or Switzerland. Or the Netherlands. Or indeed Australia. The fact all these countries have managed to develop their principal commercial city into a major financial hub – despite these cities not being national capitals – will doubtless spur Erdogan to ignore his critics and try and emulate their success.
Polish central bank in turmoil
Jerzy Pruski, a deputy governor at the National Bank of Poland, has resigned, citing differences with Slawomir Skrzypek, the governor of the central bank. Pruski’s departure follows that of his fellow deputy, Krzysztof Rybinski, earlier this month.
“Over the last year, as a result of the decisions of the governor and the management board, significant organisational changes took place at the central bank accompanied by significant personnel changes,” Pruski said, explaining his decision to quit. “In such conditions, decisions were made contrary to what I would consider to be the proper functioning and development of the bank.”
Pruski’s former colleagues, including Rybinski, criticised the statement. All of the members of the central bank’s management board bar Skrzybek signed a statement which said his comments “undermine the authority and prestige of the remaining members of the board and hurt the good name of the National Bank of Poland.”
The central bank has said that his comments, which claimed that its inflation forecasts underestimated actual price growth, were “contrary to the truth.” Pruski’s resignation has led to concern regarding the central bank’s reputation.
Rybinski explained to CentalBankNews why he thought Pruski’s statement so unfair:
“Institutions and people should be assessed by their achievements. In 2007 the NBP significantly improved its communication with the markets, for example by providing MPC minutes three weeks after the meeting.”
“Strategic asset allocation decisions proposed by my reserve management team has led to value of foreign exchange reserves rising by an additional billion dollars.”
“The structure of the board and reporting lines were adopted according to good central bank governance practices and consistent with recommendation by John Mendzela, a respected international consultant advising the NBP. This list of achievements is much longer, among which I would also put operational risk management system and crisis management system built under the supervision of Mr Pruski.”
The head of the office of President Vaclav Klaus, economist Jirí Weigl, a friend and long-term associate of the president, is reportedly a strong candidate for membership on the governing board of the Czech National Bank, in succession to Ludek Niedermayer, whose six-year term expires in February. However. those familiar with the situation at Prague Castle have said Weigl has not yet reached a final decision.
If Vaclav Klaus wins re-election on 7 February, Weigl could prefer to continue working for the president.
While everybody waits to see who will get the top job at the PBoC when Governor Zhou moves on to higher things in March, two new vice governors have been appointed – Yi Gang and Ma Delun.
Yi Gang, an assistant governor and former director-general of the monetary policy committee, will take over from Wu Xiaoling, the vice governor responsible for monetary policy. He has a doctorate in economics from the University of Illinois. Ma Delun, a former assistant governor at the central bank, replaces Xiang Junbo, who left the central bank in the summer to head the Agricultural Bank of China.
Anthony M. Solomon, a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, died last Friday, at the age of 88.
A self-made businessman, Solomon made a fortune when General Foods bought a company he had built up selling soup to housewives in Mexico. After entering public service, he proved an adept operator, and rose to be assistant secretary of state for economic affairs and then under secretary for monetary affairs at the treasury. In 1979, Solomon planned and organised the freezing of Iranian financial assets after the overthrow of the Shah.
At the New York Fed, where he was president from 1980 to 1985, he played an important role in supporting Paul Volcker, chairman of the Fed at the time, in managing the fall-out from the developing countries’ debt crisis, and thus safeguarding financial stability in the United States.
Jakaya Kikwete, Tanzania’s president, has removed Daudi Ballali as governor of the Bank of Tanzania, after external auditors found evidence of massive “irregular payments” at the central bank.
Benno Ndulu, deputy governor of the central bank, is to take over after an audit by Ernst & Young, one of the big-four accountancy firms, revealed that the central bank had made more than TSh133bn-worth ($116m) of improper payments to 22 companies in the country, many of which are said to be fictitious. The payments were made in 2005. Ndulu formerly worked as the World Bank’s representative in Tanzania and before that set up the African Economic Research Consortium, a research and training network. He holds a PhD in economics from Northwestern University in the United States.
Ballali had repeatedly deined such allegations. Last July he denounced mounting allegations against him as “malicious lies and fabrications” and said he had no intention of resigning. Local media reported the governor was quizzed by journalists over questionable expenditures in relation to the central bank’s external commercial debt account, the controversial Twin Towers project for the construction of new headquarters for the central bank on which expenditure has already reached $340m, and excessive legal fees.
How Irwin Stelzer irritated the Bank
In Britain’s Sunday Times on 16 December, columnist Irwin Stelzer quoted a senior Bank official as saying that it was being frustrated in its desire to push through reforms by demoralisation of the government. The opening paragraphs of the story read as follows:
“The Bank of England is trying to push through reforms to the banking system to prevent another Northern Rock crisis but is being frustrated by a prime minister and a chancellor who are said to be too demoralised to take action.”
“City sources say Mervyn King, governor of the Bank, would like to introduce fundamental reforms but believes that recent political setbacks have left Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling distracted. They are said to be ‘unable to focus because morale throughout the government is so low’, according to one senior Bank official.”
The City immediately jumped to the conclusion that the source of the story must have been Mervyn King himself.
But while admitting he had met Stelzer, King denied this: “None of the comments in the article I recognise and they're certainly not my views," adding that nobody in the Bank would have made comments like that.
Stelzer hit back. In the following week’s Sunday Times, he insisted that the governor did make these comments and that he was advised by his editor that they could be treated on the record as he had not been asked to treat them as off the record. He also speculated whether in denying the story the governor had been lying to MPs. After all, Stelzer said, King had more incentive to deny the story than Stelzer had to “invent” it. But as he was a charitable sort of chap, “I prefer to chalk this up to a failure to recall this aside to a long policy discussion.”
What actually happened seems to be this. Stelzer went to lunch at the Old Lady and promptly started to pontificate about the low morale of the Labour government while Mervyn sipped his soup. As it was not on-the-record, Mervyn may not have bothered to state his disagreement. He knew that he had made clear that, far from pestering the government to introduce immediate reforms, he wanted the Treasury Committee’s report on Northern Rock to be published first.
But Stelzer apparently took non-denial as a gubernatorial endorsement of his views, even though he should have realised they were completely inconsistent with the governor’s known views.
As for whether it was all on the record or off: Who do you believe – the central banker or the journalist? Newsmakers has always followed the convention that matters discussed at a private lunch are kept private – unless there is a specific agreement to the contrary. Stelzer and his editor should have known better.
Parliamentary committee lets Bank down lightly ….
The long-awaited report of the UK treasury select committee on Northern Rock published on 26 January turns out to be a surprisingly thoughtful and well-argued document.
It is also mild in its criticisms of the Bank of England, reserving its most ferocious language for the poor old FSA. Yes, it says the Tripartite authorities – Bank, FSA and Treasury – were slow to act. It says the Bank should have been more pro-active rather than dwell on the risks of moral hazard, and that with the benefit of hindsight the bank should have been quicker to broaden the range of collateral it accepted in its money market operations. But all this amounts to little more than a slap across the wrists.
It specifically does not repeat the canard that the Bank or its deputy governor, Sir John Gieve, were “asleep at the switch” in the run-up to the crisis.
The authors do not accept the self-interested pleas of the British bankers lobby that the central bank should have flooded the system with liquidity. Nor do they accept the commonly held but erroneous view that the ECB injected more net liquidity to markets than the Bank; in fact the ECB did not inject any net liquidity in any of the months between August and December. All its injections were withdrawn later, often only after a few days. Nor do the authors repeat the equally erroneous view that the ECB rescued British banks coming to it for liquidity that they were denied by the Old Lady.
In fact EU banks regularly make use of the Bank of England’s facilities, so it is a two-way street.
….but does savage the Tripartite Authorities
It does strongly criticise the communications strategy of the tripartite authorities as a whole at the time of the support operation:
“In failing either to make an announcement earlier in the week or to put in place adequate plans for handling press and public interest in the support operation, the tripartite authorities and the board of Northern Rock ended up with the worst of both worlds.”
“The tripartite authorities were conscious during the planning of the support operation that announcement of that operation might have an adverse effect. In light of this, we regard it as a serious error of judgement that the tripartite authorities at deputy’s level failed to plan in advance for the announcement of a government guarantee and failed to raise some of the issues surrounding such a guarantee with the principals prior to Sunday 16 September.”
Why was the guarantee of deposits delayed?
The report also bemoans the failure quickly to announce that all deposits would be guaranteed. This delayed the guarantee until the evening of the fourth day after the run on Northern Rock started and thus to make the run more prolonged, and more damaging to the health of the company, than might otherwise have been the case.
The report recommends the establishment of a new post of “Deputy Governor of the Bank of England and Head of Financial Stability.” Funny, Newsmakers thought we had one of those already.
Alistair Darling, the British chancellor of the exchequer, who is pushing for the FSA rather than the Bank of England to get the new powers, said the committee’s findings were flawed and that he would press on with his plans.
The Mervyn reappointment stakes
There is certainly nothing in this report that anybody ill-disposed to Mervyn King could use to justify not reappointing him. The British press have gone very quiet on the issue recently, and there has been a singular absence of the kind of speculation on names of possible successors that one usually finds when the political correspondents pick up hints in Downing Street that the mood is turning against an incumbent.
FSA’s Huertas dodges the issue
A sense of unreality pervaded City and Financial’s 4th European Banking Regulation conference in late January as Thomas Huertas, acting MD at the FSA’s wholesale & institutional markets, spoke of regulatory priorities post-Northern Rock.
Asked whether there might have been supervisory shortcomings and whether it was wise to allow a financial institution to excessively lend long and borrow short, Huertas dodged the first question and suggested the second was normal banking practice “as anyone in this room would concur”.
Pressed further, he answered by asking a rhetorical question: “Are you honestly telling me that you could have stood in this spot a year ago and predicted Northern Rock would be in crisis by August?”
Cue for mutters in the audience that “maybe yes, especially if we were party to the volumes of material that the FSA demands from British-based financial institutions, including regular updates on banks’ liquidity”.
“It takes us months of time and millions of pounds to comply with the FSA’s demanding paperwork requirements – hearing this, it makes you wonder whether they ever look at it,” said one accountant-turned-banker with a leading international institution.
At least Huertas, who only joined the FSA in November, has some personal experience of distressed financial institutions. His last job was managing director of Citigroup Global Transaction Services.
Jose de Gregorio takes over in Chile
Jose de Gregorio has taken over from Vittorio Corbo as governor of the central bank. Earlier in his career he worked as an economist in the research department of the IMF and as a visiting researcher at the World Bank. He was president of the National Economy Commission and minister for the economy before joining the central bank in 2001. He became deputy governor in 2003.
John Murray, who has been an adviser to the governor since the start of the millennium, was appointed a deputy governor at the Bank of Canada on 4 January, replacing Tiff Macklem. Murray joined the central bank in 1980 as a senior economist and since then has worked as a research officer, deputy chief of research and head of the international department. He also had two stints in academia. First at the University of British Columbia and the University of North Carolina, then at Princeton, where he completed his economics PhD.
“Despite tighter credit conditions, domestic demand in Canada is expected to remain strong, supported by continued income growth associated with the increase in commodity prices seen since October,” said Dodge in his last scheduled press conference to mark the release of the latest edition of the monetary policy report before he retires next week. Mark Carney takes over this week as governor.
Chinese becomes chief World Bank economist
The World Bank has appointed Justin Lin, a Chinese economist, as its chief economist. Lin, who now works at the China Centre for Economic Research, a think tank based at the University of Beijing, will be the first chief economist of the World Bank to come from a developing country. He has already worked as a consultant for the Bank and gained his PhD in economics from the University of Chicago. The World Bank could announce the appointment early next week.
Yhgve Slyngstad has succeeded the legendary Knut Kjaer as head of the country’s sovereign wealth fund. He has a hard act to follow but has built up great experience as head of equity investments at Norges Bank Investment Management. He pledged that the fund would be as transparent as possible, adding that it had a responsibility to give the Norwegian people insight into its activities.
Jihad Al-Wazir starts at the PMA
Jihad Al-Wazir began his term as governor of the Palestine Monetary Authority on Tuesday after Mahmoud Abbas, Palestine’s president, approved the appointment on Sunday. Al-Wazir, a former deputy finance minister, served as George Abed’s deputy during his two-and-a-half year stay at the central bank. Former Governor Abed told Central Banking that he thought Al-Wazir was the best person to replace him.
“Al-Wazir has been with me for two years and he has been closely involved in the restructuring process.” Abed said. “I discussed his appointment with President Abbas and with the prime minister and we agreed that safeguarding the reforms and maintaining continuity were supremely important.” Al-Wazir has been acting governor since Abed left at the start of last November.
Professor Honkapohja for the Bank of Finland
Seppo Honkapohja, the latest addition to the Bank of Finland’s board, is taking charge of the central bank’s research activities, joining from Cambridge University, where he was a professor of international macroeconomics. He told Central Banking: “The Bank of Finland has emphasised research for a long time. It has a tradition whereby research plays an important part of the bank's activities.”
There will be a reshuffling of responsibilities for Honkapohja’s fellow board members. Erkki Liikanen, the governor, will take on the task of monetary policy preparation and implementation, including preparations for meetings of the governing council and general council of the European Central Bank. Pentti Hakkarainen, the deputy governor and vice-chairman of the Board, will take charge of issues concerning financial market stability and membership of the Boards of the Financial Supervision Authority and the Insurance Supervision Authority. Sinikka Salo, a board member, will deal with banking operations related to the Bank of Finland's own investments, and for payment and currency supply services.
Drive on the left, says governor
Leasi Papalii Scanlan, governor of Samoa’s central bank, says changing the side of the road on which vehicles travel from left to right will jeopardise the country’s already low foreign exchange reserves. Scanlan says relatives overseas who are expected to buy the new right-hand vehicles will have less money to send to Samoa. And a big increase in car imports will also affect foreign exchange rates.
Earlier this month, 10,000 people marched through Samoa’s capital, Apia, to the parliament building to deliver a petition demanding the overturning of the decision to change the country’s traffic flow.
CORRECTION: Jean-Claude Trichet started a non-renewable eight-year term as president of the European Central Bank on 1 November 2003, expiring on 31 October 2011. In the previous edition of Newsmakers, it was wrongly stated that Trichet’s term expires in 2009.
Previous issues of Newsmakers can be found at
http://www.centralbanking.co.uk/newsmakers/index.htm
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