NEWSMAKERS
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31
October 2006
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Sibos
at Sydney
The Bank of England's Steve Barton raised eyebrows at this year's SIBOS
when he floated the idea of the Bank giving up running Britain's real-time
gross settlement system (RTGS). "In most cases central banks are the operators
of the RTGS, but we are happy to review this," he said when discussing
renewal of the system. This "may lead to a different proposal in the future."
Viewed as systemically important, RTGS systems process a country's large-value
payments and are typically the preserve of the central bank, which more
often than not owns, runs and oversees it.
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Godeffroy
squares up to Francotte
Much of the chatter among delegates surrounded the controversy raised
by the ECB's proposal for the eurosystem to run a single settlement-only
platform for euro securities. This is controversial as settlement is one
of the services already provided by privately run or user-owned central
securities depositories (CSD). The problem is that despite some consolidation
and work to harmonise rules, the sector remains fragmented along national
lines. For Jean-Michel Godeffroy, the ECB's director-general of payment
systems and market infrastructure, the new proposal called Target2securities
is the only way to achieve three objectives: "to maximise the benefits
of European integration; to maximise settlement efficiency (with cash
and securities settled on the same platform); and to maximise central
bank control over accounts opened by banks."
Godeffroy was a "special guest"
at a panel on securities market reform which also featured Pierre Francotte,
chief executive of Euroclear, Europe's largest settlement provider, and
the organisation with most to lose from the proposal. This provided excellent
theatre for all concerned. The appearance of civility was maintained -
there were no fisticuffs or anything. But the body language of folded
arms spoke volumes. Francotte commented icily that it was up to the ECB
to demonstrate the business case for T2S. The ECB's proposal leaves out
custody and notary functions which traditionally have been combined with
settlement in a CSD, Francotte argued. Far from simplifying the process,
the ECB's proposal would add another layer to the process, as it did not
collapse the existing platforms into one. "Is it going to be more efficient?
That is the question," - clearly a rhetorical question as far as he was
concerned. Passionately, he called for a "dispassionate debate" on the
subject after a thorough consultation with the market in early 2007.
Godeffroy said he would not
use the word "threat", but acknowledged that if the proposal is implemented
CSDs "will require fewer people to handle their activities." He added
"there was a lot of experience in CSDs that we would like to benefit from."
The general impression one had was that the central bank may have launched
the initiative without realising the extent of the work involved. But
Godeffroy would not countenance any turning back or wavering: "Central
banks are not good at everything," he said, "but if there is one thing
they are good at it's building market infrastructure."
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Sepa
event
City & Financial and APACS are organising a one-day conference in London
entitled: "The Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA): Opportunities and Practical
Implications for UK Financial Institutions and Corporates". The event
will be held at the Thistle Marble Arch hotel in west London on 15 November
and chaired by Paul Smee, APACS' chief executive. More information about
the programme and speakers can be found at: www.cityandfinancial.com/sepa1.
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Phelps
backs discretion
Edmund Phelps,
awarded the Nobel Prize for economics earlier this month, thinks that
policymakers should make sure that they are not so open with the public
that their ability to make decisions is constrained. "I'm a little bit
distrustful of the idea of fixed, transparent interest-rate rules," Phelps
said in an interview with Bloomberg.
"The central bank
had better leave itself open for using its intuition and responding to
events in an ad hoc way when new challenges, when new situations, present
themselves." ``There are going to be times when transparency has got to
take a back seat to practicality,'' Phelps told the newswire. Phelps said
on 9 October that the ``usual formulations of inflation targeting'' may
be ``unrealistic.'' ``They tend to assume the policy maker knows all sorts
of things he couldn't possibly know,'' Phelps said.
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Chicago
still leads Nobel roll call
Phelps, 73, is a professor at Columbia University in New York, bringing
its clutch of economics Nobel laureates to four, with Robert Mundell,
Joseph Stiglitz and the late William Vickrey (a perennial favourite for
the prize, the great trade theorist Jagdish Bhagwati is also on the faculty
but has not won the big one yet). Including those who shared prizes with
others in the same year, that makes Columbia level-pegging with Harvard
and Cambridge, UK, but still lagging behind the University of Chicago,
whose roll call of nine features Milton Friedman, Ronald Coase, Theodore
Schultz, George Stigler, Merton Miller, Gary Becker, Robert Fogel, Robert
Lucas and James Heckman.
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Tito Mboweni, the governor of South Africa's central bank, made clear
his frustration at the central bank's inability to retain young black
staff. Discussing the Reserve Bank's track record in black economic empowerment
(BEE), Mboweni explained that he had "sought to recruit many competent
black people, and no sooner have we recruited and trained them than they
leave." For Mboweni, some however had shown commitment: "I get so upset
. . . I am stopping this recruitment of black people. I am okay with my
Afrikaners. They stay and do the work, and become experts," Mboweni said.
The problem for the central bank is that commercial banks in South Africa,
still predominantly owned and managed by the Afrikaner and English-speaking
white minority, are also under stringent BEE requirements, either explicitly
or through implicit governmental pressure. It should come as no surprise
that a well-trained, black economist, statistician or trader is an attractive
proposition for the country's commercial banks, who can offer salaries
well above that the Reserve Bank has on offer.
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Buiter's
blasts
Former Bank of England MPC member, Willem Buiter, was in his usual sparkling
form during his inaugural lecture as a professor at the London School
of Economics. The ECB is the least accountable of the world's leading
central banks, he said, due to their "minimalist interpretation" of their
reporting requirements. Professor Buiter expects the Fed to adopt an inflation
target "if not this year, then certainly by the end of next year."
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Paramonova
out
Tatyana Paramonova, one of the best-known of Russia's central bankers,
is not be considered for reappointment as a managing board member. The
State Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, extended the term of five
members of the central bank's board on Wednesday - their tenures had expired
on 27 September - but chairman Ihnatiev did not put Paramonova up for
reappointment: "I think Tatyana Paramonova is a highly qualified, experienced
and industrious person, but she has not been good at tackling issues lately,
as decisions have been implemented slowly and ineffectively," Sergei Ignatyev
said. "I decided not to submit her candidacy for reappointment to the
managing board," he added.
He said that Paramonova
had experienced certain "problems" with the introduction of the real-time
gross settlement system (RTGS) and the transition of the banking sector
to International Financial Reporting Standards.
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Tarisa
becomes Thai governor
Tarisa Watanagase, Bank of Thailand deputy governor, is to take over as
governor, the first female governor in the bank's 64-year history. Atchana
Waiquamdee, 55, BoT assistant governor has been promoted to deputy governor,
replacing Ms Tarisa, Deputy Transport Minister Sansern Wongcha-umister
said on Tuesday. Ms Tarisa, 57, has been working for the central bank
since 1975 as an economist. She held the post of deputy governor since
1992.
The Bank of Thailand credits Tarisa with spearheading ``a modernisation
program, putting in place a large-value fund transfer system with real-time-gross-settlement
capability, the first in South-East Asia.'' The bank also attributes the
introduction of an electronic fund transfer system for small payments
and an electronic check clearing system to Tarisa. The appointment came
after previous governor Pridiyathorn Devakula became the deputy prime
minister and finance minister under the interim government led by Prime
Minister Surayud Chulanont.
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Carstens
leaves Fund
Agustín Carstens has quit as deputy managing director of the International
Monetary Fund in order to join Mexico's President-elect Felipe Calderon's
transition team. Carstens is considered a likely choice as Mexican president-elect
Felipe Calderon's treasury secretary. He will join Calderon's transition
team as economic coordinator.
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Issing
for Goldmans
Otmar Issing, former chief economist of the European Central Bank, is
to join Goldman Sachs in January 2007 in a "loose advisory position",
which would in no way relate to the investment bank's operations. The
ECB's code of conduct forbids top bank officials from taking up new positions
within the first 12 months after quitting the central bank that might
lead to a conflict of interest.
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Hausler
for Lazards
Paris Investment bank Lazard
Ltd. has appointed Gerd Hausler, a former International Monetary Fund
executive, as a managing director. Hausler, who will be based in Paris
and Frankfurt, will also become a vice-chairman of Lazard International
and a member of Lazard's Germany Advisory Board, the bank said in a statement.
He will work on Lazard's corporate
relationships in Germany and the rest of Europe and with financial institutions
across the world. Hausler "brings a wealth of unique experience and relationships
in both the public and private sectors, which positions him to make a
significant contribution to our global business," Bruce Wasserstein, the
chief executive, said.
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Academic
for top Polish job?
Poland's prime minister, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who has engaged in a long-running
bruising battle with the current central bank leadership, seems set to
appoint professor Urszula Grzelonska of the Warsaw School of Economics
(SGH) as president of the central bank according to local news reports
in succession to Leszek Balcerowicz.
"Unlike the current head of
the central bank, this person has always been right in her analyses,"
said the PM in an interview for the Nasz Dziennik daily. In August, Kaczynski
said that Grzelonska's judgements have been more accurate than those of
Balcerowicz, the Polish News Bulletin said. It quoted Grzelonska as denying
having been offered the job, but saying she would consider it if offered.
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Balcerowicz
up in arms
Leszek Balcerowicz,
who has been president of the central bank since 2001, says that the bank
is suffering the most extreme attacks on its independence since communism
fell in 1989. Challenges to it have grown more aggressive since the nationalist,
conservative Law and Justice party took power last year. "The recent attacks
were the most extreme in the last 16 years," Balcerowicz told The Associated
Press last month. But, he added, "we have been successful in defending
the independence of the central bank so far." In September, he defied
the government by refusing to testify before the panel. Poland's supreme
court then ruled that the commission violated the constitution.
The governing party also shifted
supervision of the banking and financial sectors to one big commission,
a move the European Central Bank has warned threatens the independence
of the banking authorities. Balcerowicz insists the bank's independence
is necessary to maintain the stability of the Polish currency, the zloty,
which he calls one of the "great achievements" of free-market Poland.
"I was not defending my modest person," he said. "I was defending something
fundamental -- the independence of institutions." Balcerowicz plans to
retire from policymaking after his six-year term ends in January.
Reflecting on his accomplishments
in guiding Poland's transition to a free market economy -- initially during
two stints as finance minister, then as central bank governor -- he said
the country has "achieved a lot" but is still pushing to draw level with
western Europe. "With certain policies, we would catch up in less than
20 years, with bad policies it would take longer," he said.
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Fukui
donates gains to charity
The Bank of Japan's governor, Toshihiko Fukui, has donated to charity
about 14 million yen returned so far by the Murakami Fund, whose founder
has been indicted for alleged insider trading. Fukui told the House
of Councillors Budget Committee he has donated 10 million yen to the
Japanese Red Cross Society and the rest to a charity organisation supporting
international students.
Fukui told
the House he intends to donate the rest of his original investment and
profits to charity organisations when he receives it. In response to
questions by Tadashi Hirono, a member of the main opposition Democratic
Party of Japan, Fukui stressed that the investment was not intended
to reap profits and expressed an apology. "I profoundly regret causing
criticism that I made money as a result (of the investment)," Fukui
said. "I will reflect on my conduct seriously."
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Developing
countries "losing $100 billion a year"
"Returns on reserves invested in normal central bank portfolio are likely
to be close to zero in real terms for most developing countries," according
to Larry Summers, a Treasury Secretary under president Bill Clinton. This
is partly because some held far more reserves than they should and partly
because of the unadventurous composition of reserves. China, Russia, Saudi
Arabia and India top the list with what he referred to as excess reserves,
amounting to a combined $1.3 trillion: "Investing for the long term in
foreign assets that carry a risk premium and protect against inflation
beats holding only short-term financial instruments," he said. If a country
is able to deploy 10% of GDP in a way that produces an extra 5% return,
that is half a percent of GDP a year in free returns. "This implies that
5% forgone returns costs developing countries $100 billion or about 1%
of GDP each year," Summers added.
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Kozlov's
murder
The killers of Russia's central
bank first deputy chairman Andrei Kozlov may have been hired on the cheap
and had no idea who they were being paid to kill. Suspects would be identified
only after executives from banks closed by Kozlov were questioned. The
source said several of the executives had moved or fled the country. Kozlov
was shot on Sept. 13 outside the Spartak sports complex, where he had
taken part in a friendly football match with other bankers. Kommersant,
citing unidentified investigators working on the case, reported that the
"unreliable" weapons used by Kozlov's attackers -- an air pistol converted
to fire standard bullets and a "makeshift contraption" -- indicated that
the killing was carried out by amateurs. Investigators do not have a clear
physical description of the attackers, who might have since been killed
by those behind Kozlov's murder.
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Melikyan
succeeds
A new official has been appointed to run the Russian central bank's Banking
Supervision Committee, following Koslov's murder. Gennady Melikyan, 58,
is a deputy chairman of the central bank, and holds a seat on the board
of directors. He was formerly Russia's minister of labour, and was a deputy
chairman of the country's state-run savings bank, Sberbank, until 2003.
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Russia ups euro reserves
The trend to substitute euros for dollars in central bank reserves is
gradually gaining pace. Russia's central bank has cut the dollars in its
reserves to 50%, with 40% in the euro and the rest in the dear old pound
sterling. The shift follows talk from Gulf nations that they would look
to diversify reserves out of US dollars.
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Chairing
the FOMC "like herding cats"
According to veteran Fed watcher John Berry, who now has a perch at Bloombergs,
Ben Bernanke may want the FOMC to adopt a formal inflation goal and publish
more frequent economic forecasts, but will have a hard time getting the
committee to agree on what the forecast is. The FOMC has 19 participants,
12 of whom vote on policy decisions taken at a given meeting. Getting
the 19 individuals to agree on a forecast would be "like herding cats."
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Juncker
gives in
Eurozone finance ministers and the European Central Bank should end their
public spat, according to Luxembourg's Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker.
"This Trichet-Juncker thing must be brought to an end," he told the newspaper,
after a meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Helsinki. "I have asked
ministers not to be too outspoken on monetary policy. I am a great defender
of the independence of the central bank." "Both of us have said there
is an excellent relationship and that cooperation will be intensified,"
in remarks that were interpreted as throwing in the towel.
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That's
rich
Fed governors have grown steadily richer in the last year as President
George Bush's appointments have reshaped the board of governors, research
by the Financial Markets Center shows. The Senate's July confirmation
of Columbia University economics professor Frederic Mishkin in addition
to the 2006 appointments of Estee Lauder heir Kevin Warsh and economist
Randall Kroszner have pushed the combined low-end values of assets held
by Fed governors from $18 million in 2005 to $83.8 million in 2006, according
a report released by the economic education institute Financial Markets
Center.
The
combined high-end value of assets increased from $45.6 million in 2005
to $163.1 million, the report stated. said Tom Schlesinger, executive
director of the Financial Markets Center.
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Lister resigns
The Bermuda Monetary Authority's chairwoman and chief executive, Cheryl-Ann
Lister, has announced that she is stepping down from both posts, saying
that a change in the law splitting the two positions made it an opportune
time to resign. Mrs Lister has been chairwoman since 1999 and will step
down at December 31 2006. Mrs Lister is the wife of Terry Lister, who
resigned last month from his Cabinet post. The BMA Board has begun the
process of selecting a successor as chief executive.
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Omi
to confront BoJ?
The Bank of Japan leadership is looking nervously towards the Ministry of
Finance's headquarters in Kasumigaseki to see whether Japan's new finance
minister, Koji Omi, will take a harder line than his predecessor in opposing
any further interest rate rises. Omi was first elected to parliament's Lower
House in 1983 after retiring as a bureaucrat at the former Ministry of International
Trade and Industry.
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Cole
succeeds veteran Spillenkothen
Roger T. Cole is the Federal Reserve Board's new director of the division
of banking supervision and regulation in Washington. The division develops
regulatory policy and oversees the supervision of state member banks,
bank and financial holding companies and their non-bank subsidiaries,
and US branches and agencies of foreign banking organizations. Cole joined
the Board's staff in 1979 as a senior financial analyst. He was appointed
to the Board's official staff in 1988 and promoted to associate director
in 1997 and senior associate director in 2001.
Before joining the Board, Cole
was a financial analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and worked
at the Wyatt Company. The director represents the Board on domestic interagency
policy and coordination committees, including the Federal Financial Institutions
Examination Council's Supervision Task Force, and on the Basel Committee
on Banking Supervision. Cole succeeds Rich Spillenkothen, who retired
in June after 30 years of service at the Board, including nearly fifteen
years as director of the division.
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Sanctions
against Iran would "hurt others more"
The Central Bank of Iran's vice governor, Mohammad Jafar Mojarad, has said
it will be difficult for the west to impose sanctions on Iran given its
key role as a major oil exporter. "Iran is an important country in the global
economy and a major oil exporter," Mohammad Jafar Mojarad told Sally Jones
of Dow Jones. "Hence our economic position is quite strong and this makes
the possibility of sanctions quite low." "If there are multilateral sanctions,
this would obviously mean hardship for our economy and our people," he said.
"But Iran is so integrated into the global economy and has extensive trade
within the region, those countries which sanction us would hurt even more,
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New
head for central bank of Peru
Julio Velarde, president of the Latin American Reserve Fund, was named as
the new head the Central Bank of Peru for a term of five years. Velarde
will replace the acting chief, Oscar Dancourt. New directors for the bank
include ex-Agriculture Minister Jose Chlimper, the country's biggest asparagus
exporter; former Industry Minister Carlos Raffo; and former International
Monetary Fund official Jose Valderrama, a notice in state gazette El Peruano
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Kosovo
gains central banking authority
The head of the UN Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), Joachim
Ruecker, signed an agreement on Wednesday 20 September by which the Banking
and Payment Authority of Kosova becomes the Central Banking Authority
of Kosova. This was announced during the regular UNMIK press conference.
The new regulation aims to increase the authority of the BPK institution.
With the transformation of
the BPK, the new board is expected to consist of seven members, five of
which will be locals and two internationals, KosovaLive said. One member
of this board will be from the International Monetary Fund, one from UNMIK
Pillar IV, and the other five local members will be from the Ministry
of Economy and Finances or from the government, it said.
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Ben must "try harder"
According to a study published by stockbroker ICAP Australia, incoming
the Reserve Bank of Australia's governor Glenn Stevens is easier to understand
than Ben Bernanke, his US peer, but both lose out to Mervyn King of the
Bank of England. Ben Bernanke's speeches require listeners to hold at
least a bachelors degree with honours, said Michael Thomas, ICAP Australia's
head of economics. By contrast, high-school leavers could understand the
speeches of Glenn Stevens, and "on a good day, King could hold court at
his local primary school,'' Thomas said.
The study of recent speeches
by central bankers used the Flesch-Kincaid test, which measures syllables
per word and words per sentence, to assess how clearly a person speaks,
and the education level a listener would need to understand the speaker.
Former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan was famous for his sometimes obscure
language.
As Thomas put it, "in his heyday,
Greenspan could make a grocery list indecipherable.'' However, Greenspan
outperformed Bernanke in the Flesch-Kincaid test, while both lagged behind
Australia's Stevens and the outgoing Ian Macfarlane. "The Reserve Bank's
dynamic duo comfortably outpoint the Fed's top two,'' Sydney-based Thomas
said in a report quoted by Bloomberg News. "And Ben Bernanke, who is a
big advocate of central bank transparency, clearly needs to try harder.''
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