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24 February 2003
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Branching
Out |
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Trichet
Left Clutching At Straws |
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| Fazio
Stands Strong While the Banque de France is conscientiously considering cutting back its seam-splitting structure, the Banca d’Italia is apparently considering no such thing according to a recent article from Dow Jones Newswires - even though Italy is just as top heavy with central bankers as France. In fact, any kind of reform appears to be out of the question, as the governor Antonio Fazio has jealously been guarding the bank’s regulatory responsibilities over the banking sector. Apparently, parts of a law in preparation which were aimed at clipping Fazio’s wings mysteriously vanished from the draft at the end of last year when Berlusconi himself intervened. Fazio also protested publicly. Since then talk about reforming the bank has gone all quiet. Conspiracy theorists cite conflicts of interest: the fact that Italy’s top four banks own over 50% of the central bank’s shares have caused a few squeals at lack of transparency in the decision-making process each time the central bank gives the thumbs up (or down) for mergers or acquisitions. The Banca d’Italia is proving far more resilient to reform than the once-mighty Bundesbank or the Banque de France, but for how much longer will strong-armed Fazio be able to hold out? |
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No Nepotism
In Peru |
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| Klein
Not To Be Pushed About In Israel relations between the central bank and government could hardly be worse. David Klein, the central bank governor, has fallen into such complete disfavour with the government that the prime minister, Ariel Sharon, is bent on replacing him with someone just a little more pliable. Klein has had the gall to speak his mind about the government’s economic policy, most recently observing that substantial cuts in the budget would be needed to reach the government’s budget deficit target (if it is not reached, Israel risks being downgraded by credit rating agencies). For such impertinence (which looks more like normal central banker’s talk to us), Sharon has drafted in Attorney-General Elyakim Rubinstein to look into the legal feasibilities of ditching Klein. And if that is not feasible, it is reported that Sharon is prepared to initiate legislation to make it possible for him to do so. By law, Sharon can only fire Klein if he has continually demonstrated an inability or refusal to cooperate with the cabinet or to perform his duties properly. Klein has no intention of making this easy for Sharon. A central bank official has said, “Klein will continue to make his views known and will continue to call for budget cuts and fiscal discipline.” But Sharon will not stomach such criticism, and has repeatedly asked Klein to shut up - which Klein, to his credit, refuses to do. “The governor has repeatedly stated, in his many lectures, that he is a partner in the government's economic measures,” the bank says. But Sharon already has someone in mind: apparently he thinks former finance minister Yaakov Neeman would fit the bill nicely, although if local press reporting is anything to go by, he is the only one to think so. In fact, a lot of people think that binning your central bank governor for pursuing an anti-inflationary policy is not such a wise or confidence-enhancing move at all. Sharon also wants a new finance minister - he (Silvan Shalom) and Klein are barely able to talk to each other - and ironically Jacob Frenkel, Klein’s predecessor at the Bank of Israel from 1991 to 1999 and currently president of Merrill Lynch International, is said to be considered for the position. But if memory serves, Frenkel had his own bust-ups with the then Israeli government. And, however brilliant an economist he may be (one of Bob Mundell's many former students), Frenkel seems to us a much more prickly character than the soft-spoken, mild, diminutive Klein. |
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| Yamaguchi
Deflates Expectations Talking in London this week, Yutaka Yamaguchi, deputy governor of the Bank of Japan, was cajoled by the chair into talking about the introduction of an inflation target for Japan as a means of escaping the agonies of deflation. Yamaguchi was less than enthusiastic: “I had not planned to speak about inflation targeting, but I suppose I have to.” The glum prognosis continued in his final assessment with his personal view of why this oft-cited panacea for Japan's economic malady could not be administered. For Yamaguchi this would be “promising something to our people that we could not possibly deliver.” It seems that the bank, not content with expectations of deflation, seeks to deflate expectations as well. While there was not much optimism for a rise in the price level emanating from Yamaguchi, clearly somebody at the BoJ believes that some inflation is on the way, as Newsmakers learns that the BoJ is tendering for bids to print new banknotes. Why would they want to do a thing like that? More notes will only be required if the price level is expected to increase or if the government fancies a healthier dollop of seigniorage revenue. Alternatively it might be in preparation for a helicopter drop of money over Tokyo - about the only monetary policy tool the BoJ has left. |
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| Who
Cares For Accountability Anyway? Prevailing opinion holds that accountability is a good and desirable thing. So the One World Trust has come up with the worthy idea of measuring accountability in global institutions. Its Global Accountability Report 2003 (http://www.oneworldtrust.org/Files/Pubs/GAP%20report/GAP2003_ES.pdf - skip to page four for the most interesting bit) has surveyed a disparate bunch, from trans-national corporations, to NGOs, to inter-governmental institutions. It uses member control of an organisation and access to online information as its criteria for measuring this. While it admits these criteria are necessary but not sufficient, one wonders if there are any other “necessary” criteria that might have slipped their attention: NGOs, those paragons of democracy and transparency, topped the list for being the most accountable, while the Bank for International Settlements actually came a resounding bottom. But so what? Well actually, if a new study released by the BIS itself (see here: http://www.bis.org/publ/work123.htm) is anything to go by, this would seem not necessarily to be a bad thing. It casts profound doubt on whether those much-lauded virtues of transparency and accountability - among central banks anyway - are really that desirable after all. The study suggests that if central bankers would only hold their tongues a little more, the markets would be able to make up their own minds rather than be led astray by garrulous central bankers who don’t necessarily know any better: “When public information becomes entrenched in the prevailing ‘climate of opinion’ it begins to take on a life of its own, suppressing the private information of individual agents, and disrupting the channel through which the market mechanism aggregates and disseminates information on the economic fundamentals.” So, leaving aside the credibility of the above-mentioned survey, at least it shows the BIS practices what it preaches. |
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Martian Madness Einars Repse, former governor of Latvia’s central bank and now the country’s prime minister - and never one to stay out of the limelight - enjoys pulling his critics’ legs. Swept to power on promises to banish corruption from Latvia, Repse is reported to have turned up for his first cabinet meeting with a pistol tucked into his belt. Separately, he has conceded: “I am a caught-out Martian and clearly nuts.” Answering detractors who said his government was failing in its promises, he observed deadpan, “As it turns out, the government is full of thieves, smugglers, bribe-takers, people who deal with suspicious business partners, foreign services and spies.” |
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| Lean
Times For Norway's Treasury This year Norway’s Treasury is not to get a bean from the central bank, which regrets that, as its accounts show a deficit of 24.1 billion krone for 2002 (compared to a deficit of 4.7 billion in 2001), there won’t be much to go round for the government. A press release from the bank explained that the results “must be assessed against the background of Norges Bank’s responsibilities”, and pointed to how factors outside its control can lead to “wide annual fluctuations” in its accounts, highlighting how the appreciation of the krone set against the bad performance of the stock markets meant that reserves had taken a bit of a tumble. Will this make any difference to the bank’s investment strategies, one can only wonder? To see the report click here: http://www.norges-bank.no/front/pressemelding/en/2003/2003-02-20T14-17-15.fgen.html |
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