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9 August 2002
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News This Issue:
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Bernanke
And Kohn Accepted:
The Federal Reserve Board is now to enjoy its full complement
of seven with the arrival of two new faces on its board,
Ben Bernanke and Donald Kohn. They sailed through a
hearing with the Senate Banking Committee, which treated
them with "exceptional deference" and faced questions
for less than an hour. They pledged to strive to make
the Fed's decision-making process more transparent and
demonstrated unswerving support for the monetary policies
pursued over the last 20 years by Paul Volcker and Alan
Greenspan.
Kohn replaces
Laurence Meyer to undertake a full 14-year term until
2016, by which time he will be 73 years old, while Bernanke
fills the gap left by the resignation of Edward Kelley,
so that his term expires in 2004. As things now stand,
the seven board members are Alan Greenspan (chairman),
Roger Ferguson (vice-chairman), Edward Gramlich, Susan
Schmidt Bies, Mark Olson, Ben Bernanke and Donald Kohn.
At the hearing,
Bernanke reiterated his by now well-known and mildly
controversial opinion that the Fed should adopt inflation
targeting, possibly in the range of 1-2% a year. Until
now Greenspan has opted for a more intuitive approach,
but Bernanke insisted that his ideas are not radically
opposed to the Fed's current modus operandi: "It is
important to stress that inflation targeting, as I interpret
it, would not represent a major departure from the current
practice of U.S. monetary policy or a change in policy
objectives."
Kohn spoke
out on the growing consolidation in the US banking sector
which has fomented sounder and more diversified institutions,
but he recommended that banks should be allowed to go
bust if they fail the market test: "No depository institution
should be insulated from market forces by being considered
too big to fail."
Perhaps fortunately,
nobody in the markets actually believes that doctrine,
but political correctness never did have much to do
with the real world, did it?
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The Order
Of The Empire For Alan...
Queen Elizabeth II of England, in all her munificence,
has conferred an honorary knighthood on Alan Greenspan.
This is in recognition of his "outstanding contribution
to global economic stability and the benefit that the
UK has received from the wisdom and skill with which
he has led the US Federal Reserve". Although, as he
is not a UK citizen, he is denied the amusement of calling
himself Sir Alan Greenspan (thus firmly remaining Mr
Greenspan), he does now have the pleasure of appending
the letters KBE to his name, making him a noble Knight
Commander of the Order of the British Empire.
In a statement
released by the Fed, he expressed his gratitude: "I
am most privileged to accept this honour. I have valued
my close relationship with the Bank of England and with
many chancellors of the exchequer, going back nearly
30 years." This honour is very rarely granted. Fellow
American knights include Ronald Reagan, George Bush
(senior), former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, entertainer
Bob Hope and General Norman Schwarzkopf of Gulf War
fame.
Foreigners
from any country are eligible for this honour except,
it seems, people from an international institution.
This is one honour that the much-decorated Wim Duisenberg
may not be in line for.
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...And
The Order Of The Boot For Devakula?
Thailand's prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra would love
to boot out central bank governor Pridiyathorn Devakula.
Or so some people say. The PM vehemently denies this
- they are the best of buddies. He insists that he and
Devakula "speak the same language", and suggests that
these rumours were only designed to portray him as the
"bad guy". He said, "I am a kind northerner. I am not
mean or cruel... But I have to be tough when it is required."
Devakula's
meeting with the finance minister this week also sparked
rabid speculation, which the latter promptly quelled:
"It's normal for me to ask questions when something
goes wrong… It doesn't mean I plan to fire anyone."
He strengthened his case by citing Thailand's exceptional
performance in reducing the national debt and increasing
reserves as "signs of how well the central bank and
the finance ministry are working together".
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Don's
Revenge
Former governor of New Zealand's central bank Don Brash
vindicated his plucky decision to turn to politics by
finally managing to get elected after failing to do
so twice previously in the early eighties. True, in
forsaking the central bank, he has aligned himself with
the party on the losing side in the recent elections,
the centre-right National Party. But this has still
presented Brash with unparalleled opportunities to speak
his mind after 13 years of being gagged at the central
bank. He has proved himself to be a formidable adversary
in parliamentary debates, and has got stuck in with
gusto. Provoked to biting point by underhand sniping
from his opposite number, finance minister Michael Cullen,
who has been smearing his proud record as central bank
governor, Brash lashed out. Cullen, he said, was like
a fat jockey slowing down New Zealand's thoroughbred
economy.
Who was it
that used to insist that there was never any tension
between the finance ministry and the central bank during
Brash's tenure?
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O'Connell
Keeps Busy
Back to the time-honoured question: is there life after
central banking? Some, like Brash, go into politics.
Maurice O'Connell, whose eight-year shift at the head
of Ireland's central bank ended last March, has followed
a rather less conventional route. He was last spotted
doing a review of Ireland's Football Association following
Ireland's part in the recent World Cup in Japan and
South Korea. The job progression is not quite as incongruous
as it may seem, as according to the Central Bank, "He
has a big interest in sport so he would be well versed
with the various issues that arose during Ireland's
world cup campaign." Although he will not be assessing
the performances of the players themselves, he will
be examining the FAI's performance off the field. But
this is not all. To ensure that he keeps himself occupied,
the government has enlisted his help to bring ministers'
expenditure figures under control, appointing him to
a small team charged with reviewing ministers' spending
proposals.
Which other
central bankers are into football? Well, there's Brian
Quinn, former executive director at the Bank of England,
who is chairman of Celtic Football Club. And Howard
Davies of the FSA hates to miss a Manchester City match...
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Happy
Note For Japan
The Bank of Japan is trying to kick start its crumbling
economy not by printing banknotes but by redesigning
them. Or so some allege. It is ostensibly a measure
to improve security against counterfeiting but finance
minister Masajuro Shiokawa hopes the new design will
"brighten the mood" of the nation. Indeed, the news
has already had its affect: shares of Oki Electric Industry,
a major player on the ATM market in Japan, leapt 12.7%.
The notes
will depict a number of Japanese worthies - all with
"difficult-to-counterfeit faces". Novelist and poet
Ichiyo Higuchi is to be featured on the 5,000-yen bill,
and will be the first woman to appear prominently on
a Japanese banknote since the end of World War II, a
tribute to women's rising positions in society. The
first time a woman appeared on a Japanese note was in
1881, portraying Empress Jingu (although this was not
issued by the Bank of Japan which was founded in 1882
and printed its first bills in 1885). But since then
Japan has been slow to do other women a similar honour
- although Murasaki Shikibu, 11th century courtier and
author of the epic "Tale of Genji", appeared on the
back of the 2,000-yen bills issued in 2000, but this
does not qualify as a portrait. The 1,000-yen note is
consecrated with the visage of bacteriologist and microbiologist
Hideyo Noguchi. Yukichi Fukuzawa, educator and protagonist
of enlightenment, remains on the 10,000-yen bill.
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Farewell,
Rudiger Dornbusch
The flamboyant MIT economist Rudiger - better known
as Rudi - Dornbusch has died of cancer aged 60. He firmly
established his reputation amongst economists with his
seminal 1976 paper on foreign exchange rates and overshooting.
He was also respected for his opinions and work on international
economic policy, particularly in Latin America. Although
he never aspired to be a policymaker himself, policymakers
regularly turned to him for his opinion. His commentary
on economic affairs was perhaps what most endeared him
to his peers, unfailingly delivered with panache and
iconoclastic wit. Journalists quote his opposition to
the IMF's bailout of Brazil in 1998: "When they (Brazil)
call 1-800-BAILOUT, just let it ring. Say our operators
are busy."
I wonder
what he would have thought of the latest blockbuster
$30bn bailout.
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Pop
Quiz
How much do you know about the Federal Reserve? So challenges
the Washington Post on a recent posting to its website,
posing ten questions plumbing the very limits of knowledge
on monetary policy and the institutional framework of
the Fed. Think you could get full marks? Really? http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/quizzes/fedquiz.htm
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Jamaican
Honours
Central bank governor Derick Latibeaudiere has been awarded
the Order of Jamaica for his "significant contribution
to central banking and finance". All former governors
of the bank have received the Order of Jamaica, one of
the country's most prestigious honours, but only two while
in office (Arthur Brown in 1973 and Headley Brown in 1988).
Well done, Derick. |
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New Governor
In Mauritania
A new governor has been appointed to the Central Bank
of Mauritania: Yahya Ould Atik. Former governor Sidi Mokhtar
Ould Naji has been appointed by the president as commissioner
for human rights, combating poverty and integration. |
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Question
To Newsmakers Subscribers
Who celebrated his recent birthday by saying in an interview:
"Alan Greenspan may be splendid, but who knows who the
next one will be? Money is too important to be left to
central bankers." |
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