19 April 2002

 News This Issue:

 
 

Arise , Papademos
Now, at long last, a successor for Christian Noyer, vice president of the ECB, has been announced. European Union finance ministers decided that Lucas Papademos, governor of the Bank of Greece, was the most appropriate candidate to fill the first vacancy on the ECB's executive board since its creation four years ago. Belgium's candidate, Paul de Grauwe, will be disappointed but Papademos blushingly admitted to be "pleased and honoured" to have been chosen. Wim Duisenberg breathed a sigh of relief at the decision: "I am very happy that we have a timely proposal for the succession of Noyer." Let's hope the nomination of his own successor runs as smoothly! (Duisenberg has said he will step down in July 2003).

Papademos's nomination must still be approved by the European Parliament (on 22 April) before EU leaders confirm his appointment when they meet in Seville in June. Possibly Papademos's experience at the Boston Federal Reserve and his standing as a former MIT academic alongside Franco Modigliani tipped the balance in his favour - some say that this will put him in a good position to make European monetary policy easier to decipher for the US. Also, he is credited with being one of the driving forces behind the Greek economy's transformation allowing it to join the euro.

When interviewed for Central Banking journal back in 1995 he made clear he was determined to press on with the rationalisation of the Greek economy and he has done an excellent job. He is seen as an orthodox central banker, well versed in the ECB's strategy, and unlikely to rock the boat.

In short, his shining academic qualifications together with plenty of hands-on experience means that Papademos perfectly fits the template for the modern central banker.

But the proceedings did not pass by without a little excitement. There was concern that Belgium had not endorsed Papademos's appointment. Belgium's finance minister, Didier Reynders, abstained from an otherwise unanimous decision, although the Belgians have since been quick to play this down and write it off as having no significance. Alain Gerlache, a spokesman at the prime minister's office, said, "We will not block the appointment. Our decision to abstain was due to the fact that we had our own candidate. It was not meant at all to block the decision."

Cynics have alleged that Belgium only nominated Paul De Grauwe for this appointment to put down a marker for their man to succeed the Finnish ECB director Sirkka Hamalainen when she comes to the end of her term, at about the same time as Duisenburg. Even more controversially, some have been saying that Paul De Grauwe is a pawn in a longer-term game in which Peter Praet, currently a director in the Belgian National Bank, is the real candidate the Belgians hope to sit on the ECB executive board (which has six full time members).

The media leapt on the chance to invent a Belgian plot to secure a place on the ECB board, reporting that Belgium intended to veto Jean-Claude Trichet next year from succeeding Duisenberg unless a national from the Benelux countries (Belgium, Luxembourg or the Netherlands) gets a seat on the ECB board. Reynders, referring to a deal agreed in 1998 that promised France that its candidate would become ECB president before the end of Duisenberg's full term in office, said: "I do not deny that there is an agreement between Chirac and Duisenberg. I do deny that it is binding on the Belgian government… There is no demand from Belgium for us to agree on the name of a candidate or the name of a country, but there is a demand that we take account of the place of Benelux in new decisions on the bank's executive committee."

But Luxembourg's prime minister, Jean-Claude Juncker, has made quite clear that "there is consensus among EU governments that a Frenchman will replace Wim Duisenberg at the helm of the ECB… Neither dreaming nor wide awake can I imagine anyone would block a French candidate for the ECB presidency, or even try do so."

 
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  His Successor ?
Papademos's transferral to the ECB will leave central bankers in Greece deprived of their star player - so they will be looking for another to replace him. The Greek press has touted Panagiotis Thomopoulos or Nick Garganas as possible contenders. They are both currently deputy governors of the central bank. Nick Paleokrassas, a member of the central bank's monetary policy council, is a likely candidate to edge into the post of deputy governor.
 
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Israel 's Governor Threatens Resignation
The beleaguered Bank of Israel's governor Dr David Klein has made no bones about his feelings on the government's plan to enforce a rather strange and frankly unhealthy regime on the central bank. Klein has said he will have to "consider his future" if the Bank of Israel Law is revised according to the finance ministry's proposals. The plans would "change in an extreme way the reality in which the bank functions" according to Klein. The proposed changes would create a seven-member monetary panel comprised of Klein, two other central bank representatives and four outsiders.

Klein warned that the central bank would become politicised and contaminated with vested interests. In a recent speech, Klein made some damning criticisms of the proposed law. In particular, he said that the clause that would subject the bank's goal of price stability to "the policies of the government and its decisions" must be dumped. He counselled the government to shelve clauses making the central bank a mere "agent" of the government in managing the state's foreign currency reserves. Klein brushed off suggestions that the plan for a monetary council was an attempt by the finance ministry to force him to resign, noting that there was no need to destroy the bank's independence for "such a minor aim".

 
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Russian Reshuffle
Continuing an incipient trend of change at the central bank of Russia after the switch of chairman last month, the bank's board of directors is to undergo a radical overhaul. Three new members, Oleg Vyugin, Andrei Kozlov and Nadezha Ivanova, have been appointed, and await only an official approval from parliament next week. Sergei Ignatyev, the central bank's fledgling chairman, made these nominations, which have been wholeheartedly approved by President Putin.

Vyugin and Kozlov will serve as first deputy chairmen, both with experience in the private sector. Vyugin is to oversee the bank's monetary and credit policy while Kozlov will be in charge of regulation of the Russian banking sector. Vyugin served previously as executive vice president of Troika Dialog investment company, although he also worked in the finance ministry from 1993 to 1999, including serving as the first deputy finance minister. Kozlov worked at the central bank from 1989 to 1999, reaching the rank of first deputy chairman from 1997 to 1999. Ivanova currently acts as director of the bank's joint economic department.

But watch out for further changes: Ignatyev has hinted that he will nominate more candidates in the near future, as there are currently five vacant seats out of 13 available on the board. It has been speculated that Duma deputy Pavel Medvedev may find himself offered a place, while the federal government and the presidential administration may also tender their own representatives for the board - possibly deputy director of the financial department of the governmental staff Anton Drozdov and deputy finance minister Sergei Kolotukhin representing the former, and director of the economic department Anton Danilov-Danilyan representing the latter. Of course, a few of the old guard will be squeezed out, and it looks like current first deputy chairperson Tatyana Paramonova may take charge of Sberbank now that its former president Andrey Kazmin has been dismissed.

 
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  Faith In Reserves
A well-meaning Buddhist monk has been busy beefing up the Thai central bank's foreign exchange reserves. During the course of the last four years by his own efforts he has increased reserves by a hefty 2.4bn baht (US$55.5m). Perhaps for reasons of pride, or just plain embarrassment, the bank will accept no further payments from Luangta Maha Bua who has just added a further 40 gold bars to the banks coffers which he gathered from public donations. The bank's governor, Pridiyathorn Devakula, said this would be the last contribution from this startling character, revered throughout the land. He has been campaigning since 1997 to buttress the bank's reserves, and with some success. According to Devakula, "Last year, he asked me whether the country's foreign reserves were adequate. I told him they had been much strengthened, and there was no need to seek additional funds. But he said the public's faith was strong, and that people still wanted to make donations." Devakula says Thailand's foreign reserves are now quite adequate at US$36.6bn.
 
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  Misinformation In Iran
Contrary to what had been widely reported in the Iranian press and even found its way into the Financial Times - and, unfortunately, featured in the last issue of Newsmakers - Iran's judiciary has denied its supposed plans to summon either the central bank governor, Dr Mohsen Nourbakhsh, or the oil minister to court to face corruption charges. An official in the judiciary confirmed: "We have heard these reports, but no one from the judiciary has given out such information and, as far as I know, the judiciary does not have such a plan to summon these people." Nourkbakhsh himself denied the rumours. I would add that I did attempt to contact the Iranian central bank at the time to check out these reports, but did not receive a reply until it was too late. A spokesman later told me that the bank "strongly refutes" the allegation, and that its governor "has never been called by any court of law", which we were pleased to discover.
 
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Zambian Governor Is "Retired"
The governor of the central bank of Zambia, Dr Jacob Mwanza, has had his term cut short. The president of Zambia did not make explicit his motives for replacing him. Mwanza, who is 65, was only two years into his second five-year term when the new Zambian president, Levy Mwanawasa, appointed Dr Caleb Fundanga in his place. The president wished Mwanza well, saying that he hoped that he would use his experience and exposure in the private sector.

Fundanga was previously a senior adviser to the president of the African Development Bank where he was the executive director. Before that he served as permanent secretary at the cabinet office in charge of economic affairs, as well as the ministry of finance. Fundanga has also been a lecturer at the University of Zambia. In an official statement, it was explained: "With this appointment the president wants to demonstrate his resolve to seek the expertise and experience of Zambians wherever they might be."

Fundanga's appointment follows a string of other newly appointed officials since President Mwanawasa's election last December. This represents the last link in the chain of a new economic team he has built at the expense of several big cheeses in Zambia who were, like Mwanza, "retired". Mwanza commented in January that he wanted to serve out his term, although "with a new leader, regardless of the contract and security of tenure, one would have to make way if the president asks one to do so." The president has also appointed a new finance minister, and heads to the Treasury, Zambia Revenue Authority and Zambia Privatisation Agency.

 
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  Central Bankerly Reticence
John Taylor is showing at least some of the hallmarks of a true central banker. He was asked by a reporter from the Wall Street Journal, quite directly, whether he would consider accepting Greenspan's job if approached. He answered as follows: "Monetary policy responded to the (US) slowdown, interest rates were cut and our policies have been working well through the whole length of the 1990s and back to the 1980s. That's what the message should be: things are working very well and the evidence for that is there in many different places." One could devote long hours to attempting to extract hidden meaning from this answer, but it would be time wasted. There is none: Taylor can provide an answer to unanswerable and basically ridiculous questions, while managing to slip in coherent thoughts on monetary policy at the same time. This much will be in his favour in the search for Greenspan's heir.
   
 
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