Spring
2006 Training Course/Seminar Series
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Current Challenges and the Future of Central Banks Statistics
4-day intensive residential programme, 2 –
6 April 2006
Venue: Cumberland Lodge The Great Park, Windsor
Course chairman: Philip Turnbull, Consultant in Official Statistics,
former Head of Statistics at the Bank of England and Multi-Sector Statistics
Adviser at the IMF
Series adviser: Charles Goodhart, CBE, Professor Emeritus, London School
of Economics, Financial Markets Group
Details of how to register
are here
CURRENT CHALLENGES AND THE FUTURE OF CENTRAL BANK STATISTICS
Statistics departments in central banks face expanding requirements from users and reporting obligations, and new technical challenges posed by evolving financial markets. Statistical departments need to be able to deliver high-quality, and relevant data, and they need to do this efficiently and reliably using limited resources.
Many central bankers now feel that they operate within a more stable economic and political framework. However, they are increasingly aware that their ability to conduct good policy is dependent on the quality of their statistics. The performance of complex economic models and the ability of policymakers to meet their targets depends more than ever on the reliability of the information they are given about the state of the economy.
Statistics departments realise that to meet these challenges they must continually improve their skills and techniques, and ensure that their operating methods keep up with international best practice. This new training course/seminar will help heads and senior managers of statistical functions identify and tackle these challenges, and will assist them in keeping up with the very latest developments and upcoming trends in statistics provision in central banks. The idea of the course is to provide a rounded view of the state of the art in central bank statistics provision.
Expert presenters from central banks and the private sector will lead discussions which will enable delegates to compare their central bank’s statistical work and range of responsibilities with those of comparator and leading institutions, and identify opportunities for improving the collection, management and delivery of statistical information.
The course will include workshop groups on key issues in statistics provision, and the roundtable format allows delegates to exchange views with their peers in an informal setting.
Reference material will be provided for subsequent study as well as summaries of the presentations.
We look forward to welcoming you to Windsor.
Yours sincerely,
William Clarke, PhD, CBE
Chairman, Central Banking Publications
Chairman: Philip Turnbull, Consultant in Official Statistics, former Head of Statistics at the Bank of England and Multi-Sector Statistics Adviser at the IMF
The challenges
facing central bank statisticians
Philip
Turnbull
Central bank statisticians face
a number of shared challenges, and some issues unique to their situation.
Philip Turnbull will introduce the areas of common interest which the
course will cover, and invite delegates to discuss the main challenges
their organisations face and their priorities for developing responses,
in order to focus the rest of the course on providing practical solutions.
Central bank policy needs for statistics
Roger
Clews
Special Adviser, Bank of England
Statistics departments must deliver
relevant and reliable data to meet their users’ needs, but what
are those needs? This session looks at the monetary policy and financial
stability functions of central banks, and how statistics are used in
decision-making. It will consider how demands are changing through the
use of new models or approaches, not just for the content but also for
the presentation of statistics.
The IMF perspective
William Alexander
Senior Advisor, International
Monetary Fund
The International Monetary Fund is
an important influence on central bank statistics, through its data
standards and reporting requirements. This session will examine the
central role of statistics in IMF Article IV consultations. It will
also cover General Data Dissemination System (GDDS), the Special Data
Dissemination Standards (SDDS), data quality, IMF manuals including
financial soundness indicators, International Financial Statistics,
and the Fund’s training and technical assistance role in statistics.
Organisation and management of central bank statistics
Peter Bull
Advisor to the Statistics Directorate
at the European Central Bank
and previously head of that directorate
Where should the statistics function
be located in a central bank? How should it be structured? How should
its relationships with users be organised? How should the reporting
burden on respondents be assessed? This session will consider these
questions and issues relating to reporting lines, codes of practice,
and the separation of statistics and policy roles. It will also address
relationships with external suppliers of statistics, and any necessary
supporting legislation. The speaker is in a unique position to speak
on these issues since he was responsible for setting up a statistics
division from scratch for the European Central Bank (and its predecessor,
the European Monetary Institute).
Chairman: Philip Turnbull, Consultant in Official Statistics, former Head of Statistics at the Bank of England and Multi-Sector Statistics Adviser at the IMF
Peter Bull
Central banks do not always have a direct responsibility or role in the production of government fiscal and debt statistics. Nevertheless, they do retain an interest due to the impact on monetary policy and financial markets. This session will discuss why the central bank should be involved, and how its involvement in the production of fiscal statistics should be managed. It will also cover relevant international standards and the importance of consistency of fiscal statistics with monetary and balance-of-payments data.
Banking statistics for monetary and economic policy
Speaker to be confirmed
Formerly responsible for monetary statistics and briefing of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England
The collection and compilation of banking statistics is perhaps the one common core responsibility of all central bank statisticians, with accuracy, speed, and efficiency being essential. Philip Turnbull will introduce the topic and present the international standards of banking statistics, while David Willoughby will look at national and practical considerations, including how to reconcile the often conflicting objectives of providing banking statistics for supervisory and macroeconomic purposes, and links to wider macroeconomic statistics.
Monetary statistics
Speaker to be confirmed
The compilation of monetary statistics from banking data is another core function of central banks, and remains an important consideration in monetary policy. Philip Turnbull will discuss the IMF standards for monetary statistics and give some examples of definitions used around the world. David Willoughby will look at historical examples of definitions, and consider the practical issues of measurement including stocks versus flows, and how the data relate to other key statistical areas.
Banking data for supervision and financial stability
Mattias Persson
Head of Macroprudential Division, Financial Stability Department, Riksbank
Although many central banks no longer hold direct responsibility for bank supervision, they remain a source of banking data and retain an interest in the state of the banking sector via their financial stability mandate. This session will consider the needs of supervisors for banking data and the relationship of these data with central bank statistical needs. It will also address the implications of the new Basel capital accord for the demand for banking statistics, and the issue of whether to aim for a single integrated data collection system or accept different systems for supervision and for economic policy.
Chairman: Philip Turnbull, Consultant in Official Statistics, former Head of Statistics at the Bank of England and Multi-Sector Statistics Adviser at the IMF
Integrated
macroeconomic accounts and central banks’ role
Stuart
Brown
Division head, UK Office
for National Statistics
Issues and challenges for balance-of-payments statistics
Jorma Hilpinen
Adviser on Statistics, Bank of Finland
Central banks are commonly responsible for the compilation of balance-of-payments statistics, but there are two competing approaches to this task. Countries with a history of regulatory capital controls often retain a transactions approach, collecting data on customer transactions via the banking system, Other countries use a survey approach to collect aggregate data from end-users. Increasingly a mixture of the two approaches is being adopted. This session will discuss the relative advantages and disadvantages of each tradition, as well as looking at mixed models, different data sources, international standards and the measurement of stocks as well as flows.
Group discussion of issues on balance-of-payments statistics:
plenary workshop
Jorma Hilpinen and Philip Turnbull
As policymakers re-evaluate their approach to balance-of-payments statistics it is particularly useful to examine the experiences and approaches adopted by peer-group institutions. In this session, delegates will be called on to discuss their own experiences with balance-of-payments issues, including their priorities and a consideration of the way forward.
Syndicate group exercises
Delegates will be split into smaller working groups to consider key questions on statistics arising from their own experiences as well as wider issues and challenges to the statisticians’ role in the central bank.
Participants will be given a chance to choose their topic group in advance and will be expected to give a short presentation to other working-group members. Depending on attendance and preferences, topics may include:
• Money and banking statistics;
• Balance of payments statistics;
• The scope of central bank statistical work; and
• Management and links to national statistical offices
Chairman: Philip Turnbull, Consultant in Official Statistics, former Head of Statistics at the Bank of England and Multi-Sector Statistics Adviser at the IMF
Plenary
session from workshops
Philip
Turnbull
The working groups from the previous session will
report
back, summarising their discussions, experiences and
conclusions for the benefit of other delegates. This will be
followed by an open discussion.
Lessons and key issues for the future
of central bank statistics
Philip
Turnbull
This session will bring together
the different themes of the course and focus on key ideas and conclusions.
Delegates will reflect on lessons learnt throughout the course and identify
opportunities for moving forward, both in their own organisations and
at the international level.
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