Current Challenges and the Future of Central Banks Statistics
4-day intensive residential programme, 17 April-
21 April 2005
Venue: Cumberland Lodge, Windsor
Course Director: Philip Turnbull
Consultant in Official Statistics
Dear Delegate,
CURRENT CHALLENGES AND THE FUTURE OF CENTRAL
BANK STATISTICS
High quality statistics are essential for a central bank to carry out
its core functions effectively. This is no easy task, as statistics departments
in central banks face expanding requirements from users and new reporting
obligations, and the increasing technical challenge posed by evolving
financial markets. Statistical departments need to be able to deliver
high quality, relevant data, and they need to do this efficiently and
reliably using limited resources.
Many central bankers now feel that they operate within a more stable economic
and political framework. However, they are increasingly aware that their
ability to conduct good policy is dependent on the quality of their statistics.
The performance of complex economic models and the ability of policymakers
to meet their targets depends more than ever on the reliability of the
information they are given about the state of the economy.
Statistics departments realise that to meet these challenges they must
continually improve their skills and techniques, and ensure that their
operating methods keep up with international best practice. This new training
course/seminar will equip heads and senior managers of statistical functions
to identify and tackle these challenges, and will assist them in keeping
up with the very latest developments and upcoming trends in statistics
provision in central banks. The idea of the course is to provide a rounded
view of the state of the art in central bank statistics provision. It
aims to complement the range of more narrowly focused courses provided
by other organisations.
Expert presenters from central banks and the private sector will lead
discussions which will enable delegates to compare their central bank’s
statistical work and range of responsibilities against those ofcomparator
and leading institutions, and identify opportunities for improving the
collection, management and delivery of statistical information. The course
will include workshop groups on key issues in statistics provision, and
the roundtable format allows delegates to exchange views with their peers
in an informal setting.
Reference material will be provided for subsequent study as well as summaries
of the presentations.
We look forward to welcoming you to Windsor.
Yours sincerely,
William Clarke, PhD, CBE
Chairman, Central Banking Publications
Chairman: Philip Turnbull, Consultant in Official Statistics and former Head of Statistics at the Bank of England and multi-sector statistics advisor at the IMF
Central bank
policy needs for statistics
Roger
Clews
Special advisor to the markets area, Bank of England
Statistics departments must deliver relevant
and reliable data to meet their users’ needs, but what are those
needs? This session looks at the monetary policy and financial stability
functions of central banks, and how statistics are used in decision-making.
It will consider how demands are changing through the use of new models
or approaches, not just for the content but also for the presentation
of statistics.
Organisation and management of central bank statistics
Peter
Bull
Former Head of Statistics Directorate
at the European Central Bank
Where should the statistics function be located
in a central bank? How should it be structured? How should its relationships
with users be organised? How should the reporting burden on respondents
be assessed? This session will consider these questions and issues relating
to reporting lines, codes of practice, and the separation of statistics
and policy roles. It will also address relationships with external suppliers
of statistics, and any necessary supporting legislation. The speaker
is in a unique position to speak on these issues since he was responsible
for setting up a statistics division from scratch for the European Central
Bank (and its predecessor, the European Monetary Institute).
The IMF perspective
Alfredo M. Leone
Senior Advisor, International
Monetary Fund
The International Monetary Fund is an important influence on central
bank statistics, through its data standards and reporting requirements.
This session will cover the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS),
the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS), data quality, IMF manuals
including financial soundness indicators, and International Financial
Statistics. It will also examine the input of statistics departments
into Article IV consultations, as well as the Fund’s training
and technical assistance role in statistics.
Integrated macroeconomic accounts and the central bank’s role
Stuart Brown
Division Head, UK Office for National
Statistics
The central bank is responsible for collecting
only a subset of national economic statistics. As such, it must act
both as a supplier of this specialised information and as a client of
wider statistical information. This session considers how to view the
system of macroeconomic national accounts as an integrated framework,
and considers the central bank’s role as supplier of money, banking
and balance of payments statistics. The speaker will also examine the
formal and informal working relationships between a central bank and
a national statistical office, including common definitions and procedures,
and codes of practice.
David Willoughby
Formerly responsible for monetary statistics and briefing of the
Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England
Philip Turnbull
The collection and compilation of banking statistics is perhaps the one common core responsibility of all central bank statisticians, with accuracy, speed, and efficiency being essential. Philip Turnbull will introduce the topic and present the international standards of banking statistics, while David Willoughby will look at national and practical considerations, including how to reconcile the often-conflicting objectives of providing banking statistics for supervisory and macroeconomic purposes.
Monetary statistics
David Willoughby and Philip Turnbull
The compilation of monetary statistics from banking data is another core function of central banks, and remains an important consideration in monetary policy. Philip Turnbull will discuss the IMF standards for monetary statistics and give some examples of definitions used around the world. David Willoughby will look at the specific UK and historical examples of definitions, and consider the practical issues of measurement including stocks versus flows, and how the data relate to other key statistical areas.
Banking data for supervision and financial stability
Speaker to be confirmed
Although many central banks no longer hold direct responsibility for bank supervision, they remain a source of banking data and retain an interest in the state of the banking sector via their financial stability mandate. This session will consider the needs of supervisors for banking statistics, and their relationship with central bank statistics departments. It will also address the implications of the new Basel capital accord for the demand for banking statistics, and the issue of whether to aim for a single integrated data collection system or accept different systems for supervision and for economic policy.
Fiscal statistics
Dieter Glatzel
Eurostat
Central banks do not always have a direct responsibility or role in the production of government fiscal and debt statistics. Nevertheless, they do retain an interest due to the impact on monetary policy and financial markets. This session will discuss why the central bank should be involved, and how its involvement in the production of fiscal statistics should be managed. It will also cover relevant international standards and the importance of consistency of fiscal statistics with monetary and balance of payments data.
Issues
and challenges for balance of payments statistics
Jorma Hilpinen
Bank of Finland
Philip Turnbull
Group discussion of issues on balance of payments statistics
Group workshop
As policymakers re-evaluate their approach to balance-of payments statistics it is particularly useful to examine the experiences and approaches adopted by peer-group institutions. In this session, delegates will be called on to discuss their own experiences with balance of payments issues, including their priorities and a consideration of the way forward.
Lessons and issues from participants experience
Syndicate group
Delegates will be split into smaller working groups to consider key questions on statistics arising from their own experiences as well as wider issues and challenges to the statisticians’ role in the central bank. Participants will be given a chance to choose their topic group in advance and will be expected to give a short presentation to other working-group members. Depending on attendance and preferences, topics may include money and banking statistics, balance of payments statistics, the scope of central bank statistical work and management and links to national statistical offices.
Plenary session
from workshops
The working groups from Wednesday’s sessions will report back, summarising
their discussions, experiences andconclusions for the benefit of other
delegates. This will be followed by an open discussion
Lessons and key issues for the future
of central bank statistics
Philip Turnbull
This session will bring together the different themes
of the course and focus on key ideas and conclusions. Delegates will reflect
on lessons learnt throughout the course and identify opportunities for
moving forward, both in their own organisations and at the international
level.